Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gaming terms,“parlay“ means to bet on at least 2 events, allowing the winnings ride after every win. Usually you shed, but if you win, and based in part on the number of events were parlayed, you can win big.

In sports betting, the bettor can parlay wins even if the games occur simultaneously. This can be done either“off the board“ or using parlay cards. This page address both methods and comprised three common kinds of parlay cards. What I hope to communicate through this page is that randomly creating selections on parlay cards is a lousy way to bet sports and ends in a high house advantage. On the other hand, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line movements off normal margins of success in the NFL and gain a strong advantage, of 30% or more, on half point parlay cards.

Allow me to make a disclaimer to take any win probabilities and expected returns on this page with a grain of salt. I had to make assumptions about the way stage spreads on parlay cards have been deliberately moved to either an integer or not an integer, based upon the card. My information also does not reflect the truth that lines frequently move from the time a parlay card is published to the time of this match. On the one hand, the card manufacturer may carefully place the stage spreads to minimize player edge. On the flip side, it’s an established actuality that closing lines are sharper than opening lines, along with the player can make the most of those line movements by putting in parlay cards at the last moment. All things considered, I think there are large benefits to be gained with half stage parlay cards, but the advantages can not be calculated precisely. They are smaller or greater.

After reading this site, skeptics may wonder if it’s so easy to beat half point parlay cards, why isn’t everyone doing this? A lot of bettors are. Sports publications are worried about taking thembecause they do tend to get hammered on the exact same side of certain hot games. But, I envision to a Lot of professional gamblers, they Aren’t a viable advantage play since:

It is hard to find a lot of cash down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and just a bet of $100 may set off red flags if all of the options are correlated on the sexy sides.
They’re time consuming to bubble .
It’s feast or famine. Generally , the greater legs the player makes, the greater the benefit. By way of example, an 8-leg half stage parlay pays at most 200 to 1. Obviously, such long-shot bets usually lose.

You’ll have to decide yourself if parlay cards will be for you. However, should you bet them, hopefully you’ll learn a thing or 2 from my analysis.

Methodology

All win percentages within this page are based on the 4,950 matches played at the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all selections refer to betting against the spread. I don’t recommend betting totals on parlay cards unless there is a considerable line motion.

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