With the Australian Open shortly approaching, Dan Weston returns to analyse the top 20 players in the ranks and gives his ideas on who is over and under-rated…
Trying to use players to be found by metrics As has been the case for the last few decades, the WTA Tour was extremely open and difficult to predict, with numerous players all capable of beating each other on any given day.
Having said this, it doesn’t signify that hard to forecast equates to being impossible to predict and that I thought I would discuss some practical metrics with which to look at gamers, to try and establish those players in the WTA top 20 who are beneath and over-rated and whose results have flattered them, or conversely, whose results are worse than their real skill.
An example of how to apply the data An example application in the gambling market is as follows. Let us say that we can determine a player who has won 70% of their matches within a short sample – say six months – but only deserved to win 50 percent of them based on information. Maybe they dramatically over-performed on key points and won more tiebreaks compared to expectation. In this scenario we could have the potential for some ongoing opposition of that player in the relative short-term, because my detailed previous investigation has shown that it is extremely tough to keep such a’clutch’ ability during a lengthy period of time.
Employing service/return points won to assess player abilities
To begin with, though, I want to check out player ability levels. 1 way we could ascertain who has done the best, with as little bias as possible, is to evaluate service and return points won percentages. Adding them together gives us a concrete assessment of each player’s abilities, together with These brackets decent guidelines to a player general ability:-
110+: Elite amount – illustrations are Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal on clay, Serena Williams at summit.
105-110: Strong upper top 10 level.
102-105: Perhaps not top level, but strong top 20 player.
100-102: Should be rated from the 20-40 bracket.
Below 100: Unlikely to be ranked inside the top 40.
No existing WTA player matches into the 110+ category, together with Simona Halep (108.5percent ) having the greatest 12-month all-surface figure. Serena Williams (109.2percent ) in the previous six months, was not far from this level, and if she can continue in this vein, perhaps her preferred standing for the Australian Open is justified.
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