BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW

There’s a good deal of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, in which the final event will pay $50k to 1st if you did qualify to perform in it. I’ll be pursuing those as well because we have never had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. I do think we have a fun card that Saturday and that I am ready to enter this 3-week break with a winning night in UFC 227. Listed below are a couple plays I enjoy this weekend together with my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the most powerful play in all DFS MMA and he’s the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s already beat Cejudo once before. This is the first person I am plugging in my money LU this week and I suggest you do exactly the same. DJ is almost guaranteed to score at least 100-points at a win, and he’s got a -550 betting line stating he must find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. You can stack this fight as well, but I think DJ is a must.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good struggle to goal this week since it probably will not visit a decision. Holland just fought on the Contender Series a couple weeks ago and didn’t get a contract. But now he’s about the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers from the division. The ITD lineup for Santos is now -210 and the below 1.5 rounds gambling line is -160. That tells me Vegas thinks this fight ends early and Santos is the guy that should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I think he’s a solid shot at doing exactly that. I don’t care for him as much in cash game formats however because both men have very lower flooring, so this really is a GPP just play for me personally.
Underdog play of the week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he is so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling fashion Johns brings to the table, he’s 100+ upside in a decision win. Obviously, we are concerned about him becoming caught in a guillotine if he shoots for takedowns, but when he can avoid I believe he could win this fight and 10x his wages with a win. I really don’t think Johns will want to hit with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I really do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns could get him submitted, or they may get him a win on the scorecards. But that makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he is a good underdog to select in GPPs this past week.
Fade of the week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a end to pay that price tag off with her fashion. She’s the worst fashion potential for scoring DraftKings point and even if she’s a triumph here she could wind up scoring significantly less than several losers on the card. Taylor is going to be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so in the event that you would like to spend your money on a 115 pound lady using a“punchers chance“ of winning you a GPP, then you’ll be very contrarian taking that path. However, I have no interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I would still complete vanish Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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