BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW

There’s a lot of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. DK also has lots of Qualifier competitions on this week, where the final event will pay $50k to 1st if you did qualify to perform inside. I will be pursuing those as well since we’ve not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. I really do think we have a fun card that Saturday and I am ready to go into this 3-week break with a winning night at UFC 227. Here are a couple plays I enjoy this weekend together with my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in all DFS MMA and he’s the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I’m plugging into my money LU this week and I advise you to do the same. DJ is practically guaranteed to score at 100-points at a win, and he’s got a -550 betting line stating he must find the win here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. You can pile this fight as well, but I think DJ is a must.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good fight to target this week since it most likely won’t go to a choice. Holland just fought the Contender Series a couple weeks ago and did not receive a contract. But now he is on the PPV against one of the scariest strikers in the branch. The ITD lineup for Santos is currently -210 and the below 1.5 rounds gambling line is -160. This tells me Vegas believes this battle ends early and Santos is the guy which should pick up the end. At $9.2k, he easily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I presume he’s a good shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him in cash game formats however because both men have very lower floors, so this really is a GPP only play for me personally.
Underdog play of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I believe everyone is writing off Brett Johns following his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he is so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Obviously, we’re worried about him becoming caught in a guillotine if he shoots takedowns, but if he can avoid I believe he can win this fight and 10x his wages with a win. I don’t think Johns will wish to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns can get him submitted, or they may get him a win over the scorecards. However, that makes him a boom or bust play and that is why he is a good underdog to pick in GPPs this past week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still require a finish to pay that price tag off with her fashion. She has the worst style possible for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she gets a triumph here she could wind up scoring less than some losers on the card. Taylor is going to be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so in the event that you want to spend your money on a 115 lb lady using a“punchers chance“ of winning you a GPP, then you will be quite contrarian taking that route. But I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I was making 150 lineups, I’d still complete vanish Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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